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After two rounds of the "Presidential Coin Scam," will the market bottom out and rebound?
原文作者：ardizor，加密研究员
原文编译：ChatGPT
编者按：本文分析了当前加密市场的关键信号，并结合前三轮周期预测了未来的走势。作者通过自身经验和对市场周期的洞察，提出了比特币市场份额处于阻力位、ETH/BTC 处于支撑位等信号，暗示山寨季可能到来。尽管当前市场状况并不完美，但作者认为加密市场依然具有增长潜力，建议投资者保持冷静，继续 HODL 现有资产。
以下为原文内容（为便于阅读理解，原内容有所整编）：
在此时刻，我们正见证着我在前三个加密周期中所看到的最明确的看涨信号之一：
· BTC.D（比特币市场份额）处于一个阻力区
· ETH/BTC（以太坊/比特币）处于支撑位
上一次，山寨币暴涨。这一次历史是否会重演？
我经历了三个牛市，将我的加密资产从 4000 美元增长到约 400 万美元。我大部分成功来源于对周期、时机和趋势的分析。
忘掉那些神话般的人物和复杂的图表线条……真正重要的是抓住加密世界的全貌。
让我们从一个基本概念开始：
· 资产在看起来最具吸引力时达到峰值
· 同样，资产在情况无法更糟时触底
在加密世界中有大量历史证明这一点。
因此，在牛市中，要识别市场顶点的关键问题是：「是否还有尚未被市场价格考虑的潜在增长驱动因素？」
FTX 崩盘就是一个典型的例子。
当情况跌至谷底时，改善是唯一的出路。Solana 甚至从 8 美元涨到 297 美元，创下了巅峰。
反过来，当一切都完美无缺时，衰退是不可避免的。
在这些波动中保持清醒至关重要。
散户投资者正在退出市场，其中一些人面临着财务困境——这是向前进步的重要一步。
希望似乎已消失，加密市场将走向衰退的信念占据主流。
但事实上，当前的局势对加密增长非常有利。我们有：
· 一个支持加密的主要国家总统
· 广泛的接受度
· 美国的比特币储备
很难想象更好的局面。但挑战也正是在这里开始……
根据我之前提到的理论，我们处于一个顶峰，接下来只能下行。
然而，当前的指标并未显示市场已经到达顶峰，而且时机也暗示着山寨季的到来。
那么，我们现在在市场中的实际位置是什么呢？让我详细解释一下。
如果我们正处在一个下行周期，将意味着：
· 周期完全停止运作
· 比特币成为一个宏观资产
此外，许多人曾考虑从四月到五月期间转向稳定币，并在第三季度回归。
但问题是，当每个人都这么想时，往往事情不会按照计划进行……
这就是为什么我倾向于认为当前的局势远未完美。
虽然比特币可能会转变为一个更大的宏观资产，但周期本身很可能会持续如常。
如果不考虑比特币，目前的市场状况几乎是最不利的。
目前山寨币的前景黯淡，这反而预示着可能的上涨。
这一点通过比特币的市场份额处于阻力位和以太坊/比特币在支撑位的状态得到体现。
上一次这种情况引发了山寨币的暴涨。
当前的趋势表明，我们可能处于另一个山寨季的起点。
我相信我们目前正处于市场中的关键时刻。
我已经列出了可能的情境，便于更好理解。
根据过去加密市场的趋势，我倾向于认为市场将继续增长。
然而，我建议保持谨慎；最好保持当前的持仓，避免做出剧烈的调整。
只需 HODL，不用担心，我们都在这条路上。
当前的主要目标是不要失去你的资产。
因为看起来似乎每个人都在试图骗走你的代币，甚至包括阿根廷总统……
「原文链接」
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