Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a nominal value of 1.97 billion dollars are set to expire today

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that today 23,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $70,000, and a nominal value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point of $2,150, and a nominal value of $370 million.

The current rebound in the crypto market has been declared over, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $70,000 threshold. In the past week, $75,000 has often been mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of options expiring at this price by the end of the month. The final breakthrough failed, falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement, and from the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated positions, making it an absolute resistance level. The lower levels of $65,000/$62,000/$60,000 are all areas of dense positions and can be considered as support for a decline.

This week, the implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) of major expiration options have remained basically unchanged, with the main expiration IV for BTC at 50% and for ETH at 70%. The RV continues to decline, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to rise continuously. Only options accounting for 5% of the total positions are expiring, continuing to hit record lows. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to the price decline, the skew has decreased across the board, and the market is still in a bear phase, with bullish forces being very weak.