Bank of America: Probability of a hard economic landing drops to lowest level since January, equity allocation rising

BlockBeats News, August 11th: The monthly fund manager survey by a U.S. bank showed that due to optimistic earnings performance and improved global economic sentiment, investors re-entered the stock market, with holding U.S. large-cap tech stocks once again becoming the most popular trade. The August survey covered 169 participants managing $413 billion in assets.

The possibility of an economic hard landing has fallen to the lowest level since January 2025, stock allocation is on the rise but has not yet reached an extreme level. A net 78% of respondents expect short-term interest rates to decrease in the next 12 months. 29% of respondents believe that the trade war remains the biggest "tail risk," while 27% believe that inflation hinders the Fed from cutting rates.

20% of respondents believe Fed Governor Waller is most likely to be the next Fed Chair, 19% believe it is NEC Director Hassett, and 15% believe it is former Fed Governor Warsh.