Bernstein: We are currently in a key window of opportunity for the passage of the "Clarity Act." Failure to reach a compromise quickly will increase the risk of bill postponement or failure.

BlockBeats News, January 12th: Wall Street institution Bernstein pointed out in its latest analysis report that as legislators face deepening disagreements between the banking industry and the crypto industry on stablecoin yield issues, the window for the United States to pass the Crypto Market Structure Act is rapidly narrowing.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that although the core aspects of the "Clarity Act" (including the distinction between digital commodities and securities and the regulatory approach to decentralized finance) are controversial, these issues are unlikely to hinder its progress. The analyst believes that the main obstacle is that banking industry representatives are trying to restrict crypto platforms from offering stablecoin yield. While last year's "GENIUS Act," signed into effect by President Trump, banned stablecoin issuers from directly paying yield, it still allows crypto platforms and their affiliates to distribute yield to users (typically 2% to 4% annualized).

The analyst stated that the banking industry views these incentive measures as a threat to traditional deposits, as the stablecoin market could grow from its current size of over $275 billion to trillions of dollars and become a "systemically important" area. The crypto industry argues that reopening this issue would undermine the hard-won legislative compromise of the "GENIUS Act," showing anti-competitive and anti-free market tendencies.

The analyst mentioned that both sides see this issue as an insurmountable red line, and if a compromise is not reached soon, the risk of the bill being delayed or failing will increase. Bernstein added that the political timing is crucial, and the bill must make progress by at the latest the second quarter of 2026 to avoid being disrupted by the dynamics of the midterm elections. The company noted that the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration has benefited the industry but cautioned that if the yield dispute persists, the momentum could still stagnate. Chhugani emphasized that the current period is a "critical window of opportunity."