Bitcoin: Does the Tug-of-War Between Whales and Small Holders Signal a Bottom?

Whales and sharks accumulate Bitcoin as small holders let go

According to several analysts, on-chain data for Bitcoin is showing a classic divergence signaling the end of a bear market. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, which include "sharks" and "whales," have added 19,696 BTC in just eight days, according to Santiment (see chart below). This accumulation pace sharply contrasts with the attitude of smaller market players, dubbed "krills."

Indeed, during the same period, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC are slowing their investments and are not buying the market dip (no "buy the dip" for krills). This combination of opposing dynamics is viewed positively by Santiment analysts, as it often indicates an end to the correction.

Profit Supply Rises, but Momentum Remains Fragile

The percentage of BTC supply "in profit" (more precisely, when the value of bitcoins in an address at their deposit is lower than their current value) has risen to 56%, up from 47% at the June 2026 low. This is a notable improvement, as analyst Axel Adler Jr. points out, but the indicator remains 12 points below its level from 90 days ago.

The analyst outlines a precise reading framework to determine whether the rebound will continue or if a relapse is possible. A sustained breach of the 60% profit supply zone would strengthen the recovery scenario; conversely, a return below 50% would bring the market closer to a capitulation regime.

The second trigger is the 90-day momentum, which is currently at -12 points, and Axel Adler expects a return to positive territory for this indicator to validate a true reversal signal, combined with maintaining profit supply above 60%.

USDC Flows Turn Positive on Exchanges

Another encouraging signal supporting the thesis of a bottom reached: net inflows of USDC stablecoins by American investors on exchange platforms have just turned positive again. This follows more than two months of net outflows that began on May 11, 2026.

Generally, when stablecoin funds flow into exchanges, buying pressure increases, leading to a bullish trend in cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin often leading the rebounds.

Caution: Trading Volumes Remain Low

However, the picture is not uniformly positive. Spot volumes for Bitcoin have dropped by more than 75% compared to the peak at the end of 2024, as analyst Darkfost notes on X. For example, Binance recorded only about $35 billion in July, far from the $246 billion in November 2024. On Bybit, the volume drop reaches 85%, while it is 61% on Coinbase and 67% on OKX. We have to go back to 2023, during the final phase of the last bear market, to find such low volume levels.

This disengagement from volumes occurs in a macroeconomic context unfavorable to risk assets. Uncertainty over the conflict between the United States and Iran weighs on risk appetite, while persistent inflation fuels fears of prolonged high interest rates, creating an environment not conducive to speculation.

For investors, on-chain activity signals will therefore remain nuanced for now. Strong hands are buying, weak hands are selling, but the lack of volume still calls for caution. A true reversal signal would first require the momentum of the profit BTC supply to rise above zero, combined with a sustainable return of trading volumes.