Consolidation Phase After Dead Cat Bounce, Market Bottom Price Prediction Summary

BlockBeats News, February 10th, after experiencing a continuous decline in the crypto market since January 15th, Bitcoin quickly dropped from $97,000 to above $60,000. Subsequently, the market saw a corrective rebound, and Bitcoin rose to around $70,000 before trading sideways for several days. Regarding the current confusing market trend, there has been a high consensus on the cryptocurrency bear market. As for specific bottom predictions, BlockBeats summarized the main points of view as follows:

Analyst @alicharts gave a prediction based on Bitcoin's historical data and technical indicators:Bitcoin has approached the 200-week moving average (currently around $58,000), which has served as a bear market bottom and accumulation zone multiple times over the past 12 years. On the other hand, Bitcoin's historical bottoms are usually near the −1.0 MVRV pricing range. Currently, this level is $52,040.

glassnode analyst Chris Beamish stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis heat map shows that there is a strong support level above $60,000 for Bitcoin, where long-term holders are heavily concentrated. Moving further up, there is a high supply concentration near $80,000, forming a key resistance level. This range defines the current supply chain competitive landscape.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, stated on the 6th that if Bitcoin were to deep dive into the "banana peel" support as in previous bear markets, the bottom might be slightly below $42,000. Brandt believes that the lower edge of the Banana peel curve is Bitcoin's strongest and most critical long-term support area, where the bottoms of several major bear markets (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) have mostly touched or slightly broken below this line. (It is worth noting that the uniqueness of this Bitcoin cycle is that it has never successfully touched the upper edge of the banana line during the uptrend.)

Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy combined on-chain indicator CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) to point out that the current CVDD is $44,904, and it continues to rise at an average dynamic rate of $540 every 30 days. In other words, there is a high probability that this bear market bottom will not be below $45,000 but will only get infinitely close.

Coin Bureau CEO Nic made a prediction about the duration of the crypto bear market: Bitcoin has closed below the 100-week moving average for three consecutive weeks. The price has been below the long-term trend line for 13 consecutive days. From historical data, after BTC falls below the long-term trend line, it typically stays below this level for an average of 267 days. The shortest time was 34 days during the COVID-19 pandemic.