Increasing Importance of Predictability in Blockchain Transaction Processing

The evaluation of blockchain performance is shifting from transactions per second to the predictability of transaction processing. For on-chain finance to perform time-sensitive functions, it must be possible to predict when transactions will be included and in what order they will be processed. Andreessen Horowitz emphasizes the importance of whether blockchain networks can meet the demands of real financial markets, stating that stable access and predictable transaction processing rules are necessary. Over the past five years, the combined throughput of major blockchains has increased more than 100 times, yet the timing of individual transaction inclusions remains uncertain. This has a greater impact on market transactions than on remittances, as delays in order book transactions can directly affect prices and priorities. Predictability can be divided into guarantees that transactions will reach the network on time and be included, as well as guarantees regarding the ordering rules of included transactions. Both transaction inclusion and order must work together for market participants to predict outcomes. Andreessen Horowitz presents a strong concept of chain quality, arguing for a structure that efficiently allocates block space. This allows for predictable handling of transaction submissions and cancellations in congested situations. However, such guarantees require more complex designs than current protocols, and issues with transaction ordering remain. Andreessen Horowitz suggests studying priority fee-based deterministic rules and calls for discussions on the classification of on-chain financial products and market structures.