Nine Major Doubts Smart People Have About Bitcoin

This article is an excerpt from my new book "The Narrow Gate of Bitcoin: A Methodology for Ordinary People to Combat Non-Transitive Wealth."

## Chapter Ten: Why Do Smart People Doubt Bitcoin? They Are Not Entirely Wrong
### Questions This Chapter Will Address
In the previous chapters, we gradually brought Bitcoin to the center of the table.
It is not a stock, not a company, not a bond, and not real estate.

It is a digital scarce asset that attempts to gain a global currency premium.

It addresses the issue of how digital value can be verified, transferred, ranked, and protected against double spending without a centralized institution.

Its potential returns come from monetization, not cash flow.

But at this point, serious readers will surely ask:
These statements sound logical.

But why are there still so many smart people doubting Bitcoin?

Don’t they understand?

No.
Many doubts are not absurd; they are even very important.
Some doubts question value: Without cash flow, what basis is there for value?

Some doubts question the path: With such volatility, how can ordinary people hold on?

Some doubts question the system: Will regulation, crime, and custody destroy the entry?

Some doubts question the future: Will technological substitution and quantum computing rewrite the game?

If a book on Bitcoin only writes about faith and is unwilling to seriously face opposing views, it will be hard to convince ordinary people. More dangerously, it will lead those who already believe in Bitcoin to underestimate risks and ultimately participate in the wrong way.
So this chapter aims to do something very important:
To articulate the doubts of skeptics.
Not to deny Bitcoin.

But to let us know:

What real risks Bitcoin's opportunities must traverse.
Only by acknowledging these risks can the later discussions in this book about "not using leverage, not using living money, not chasing high interest, not frequently changing positions, and not selling out of emotion" be seen as necessary rather than conservative.
### 1. The First Doubt: Bitcoin Has No Cash Flow
This is one of the most common and strongest objections. This has been mentioned before, and it is necessary to confront this issue again.
Stocks have corporate profits.

Bonds have interest.

Real estate has rent.

Companies have free cash flow.

Even commodities have industrial demand, consumer demand, and inventory cycles.

Bitcoin has none of these.
It does not pay dividends.

It does not pay interest.

There is no profit statement.

There is no rent.

There is no production use.

There are no debt repayment commitments.

The European Central Bank directly stated in a blog in 2022 that Bitcoin is not suitable as an investment because it does not generate cash flow like real estate, does not pay dividends like stocks, cannot be used productively like commodities, and does not provide social benefits like gold; its market valuation is purely based on speculation. This view is sharp and represents the basic skepticism of many traditional finance professionals. (European Central Bank)
Such doubts cannot be dismissed with a simple "You don’t understand Bitcoin."
Because it hits Bitcoin's most core weakness:
Bitcoin has no cash flow anchor.
Without a cash flow anchor, it means that it is difficult to judge whether it is cheap or expensive using traditional valuation models.
When a stock drops, you can ask: Has the profit changed? Has the cash flow changed? Has the valuation dropped to a reasonable level?

When a house drops, you can ask: Has the rental yield increased? Has the location changed? Has the population flowed out?

When a bond drops, you can ask: What is the yield to maturity? Has the default probability increased?

But when Bitcoin crashes, it is hard to comfort yourself with these questions.
You can only return to more fundamental questions:

Has its monetization logic been destroyed?

Has the network been compromised?

Have the supply rules been changed?

Is the market still willing to treat it as a digital store of value?

This is Bitcoin's difficulty.
So, this book must acknowledge:

Bitcoin having no cash flow is a significant risk, not a minor flaw.

But this does not automatically determine that it has no value.
Because gold also has no cash flow. The value of monetary assets comes from consensus, scarcity, verifiability, liquidity, and long-term store of value function, not from corporate operating profits.
So the correct expression is not:

Bitcoin has no cash flow, so it has no value.

Nor is it:

Bitcoin has no cash flow, but it doesn’t matter.

But rather:

Bitcoin has no cash flow, so whether it can have long-term value entirely depends on whether it can continuously gain monetary characteristics.

This is the core issue of Bitcoin's success or failure.
### 2. The Second Doubt: Bitcoin Is Too Volatile, Not Like a Safe Asset
If Bitcoin is a monetary asset, why is it so volatile?
This doubt is also very reasonable.
Ordinary people hear "store of value" and think of stability, reliability, and resistance to decline. But Bitcoin's historical experience is not like that at all. It often skyrockets and plummets, soaring like a rocket in bull markets and crashing in bear markets.
Fidelity explicitly states in its crypto product risk warnings that crypto as an asset class is highly volatile and may become illiquid at any time, suitable for investors with high-risk tolerance; investors may lose all their investments. (Fidelity)
Such risk warnings are not legal jargon.
They speak to reality.
Bitcoin's price does not prove itself in a stable manner. It is repeatedly repriced by the market amid violent fluctuations.
This can make many people uncomfortable.
If it is a store of value, why can it drop significantly within a year?

If it is digital gold, why does it sometimes drop along with risk assets?

If it is a long-term opportunity, why is the short term so brutal?

The answer is:

Bitcoin is not a mature store of value asset. It is a high-volatility asset that is in the process of monetization.

Gold's monetary characteristics have a history of thousands of years.

The international status of the US dollar is supported by the country, military power, financial system, and trade networks.

US Treasury bonds have government repayment capability and global collateral function.

US stock indices are supported by corporate profits and institutional credit.

Bitcoin is still vying for its position.
The market is reassessing every day:

Is it the future digital gold, or just another bubble?

Is it a long-term store of value asset, or a high beta risk asset, which is highly sensitive to market risk appetite?

Is it an insurance outside the system, or a speculative tool in the liquidity cycle?

So volatility is not accidental.

Volatility is precisely the manifestation of incomplete monetization.

This is important for ordinary people.
If you cannot accept Bitcoin's volatility, you should not use living money to buy it.

If you lose sleep over a 50% drawdown, you should not go all in.

If you would deny long-term logic due to short-term declines, you must first establish position rules.

If you participate in such an asset with leverage, volatility may force you out before the opportunity materializes.

So, skeptics saying "Bitcoin is too volatile" are not wrong.
What is wrong is to directly conclude from this statement:

So Bitcoin is not worth studying.

More accurately:

Bitcoin's volatility proves it is not suitable for most people's gambling-style participation, but does not prove it lacks long-term opportunities.

### 3. The Third Doubt: Bitcoin Is Too Influenced by Speculative Sentiment
This is also a strong objection.
If Bitcoin is a monetary asset, why is it strongly influenced by macro liquidity, risk appetite, ETF news, regulatory rumors, exchange events, and social media sentiment?
The IMF's 2024 Global Financial Stability Report mentions that Bitcoin's high correlation with other asset classes indicates that broad risk sentiment drives the crypto market. (IMF)
This statement is very important.
It indicates that Bitcoin does not always operate like traditional "safe assets." Many times, it behaves like a high-risk asset, driven by global liquidity, risk appetite, and market sentiment.
This complicates the narrative of "digital gold."
Gold may perform as a safe asset in certain crises.

Bitcoin may be sold off first in certain crises because investors need liquidity or because it is still viewed as a risk asset.

Does this weaken Bitcoin?
Yes, to some extent, it does.
It shows that Bitcoin has not yet fully become a mature store of value asset.
But from another perspective, this is also evidence that it is still in the process of monetization.
A mature monetary asset should have a more stable demand base.

A monetizing asset will be repriced back and forth between "store of value" and "risk asset" by the market.

So we cannot simply say:

Bitcoin is already digital gold.

A more rigorous statement is:

Bitcoin is competing for the position of digital gold, but the market has not yet stabilized its pricing in the way of mature store of value assets.

This is also why ordinary people need a system more.
If you treat Bitcoin as a fully matured safe asset, you will underestimate its short-term lethality.

If you only treat Bitcoin as a speculative item, you may completely overlook its long-term monetization logic.

A mature attitude is to see both sides:

It has monetization opportunities.

It is also still being priced sharply by risk sentiment.

### 4. The Fourth Doubt: Regulatory Risks Always Exist
Bitcoin supporters often say:

Bitcoin cannot be shut down.

From a technical and network structure perspective, this statement holds some truth. As long as there are nodes, miners, network connections, and user consensus globally, Bitcoin is difficult to shut down by a mere order like a company.
However, this does not mean that regulation is unimportant.
When ordinary people buy Bitcoin, they often need exchanges, bank deposits, tax declarations, custody services, ETF products, wallet tools, and fiat channels.
These entry points are all influenced by regulation.
The real impact of regulatory risk is not just on the protocol itself, but on the entry points for ordinary people to access Bitcoin: exchanges, banking channels, tax rules, custody products, ETFs, wallet services, and deposit/withdrawal paths. While the protocol can operate globally, the ways ordinary people participate will be profoundly reshaped by local systems.
At the same time, regulators do not endorse Bitcoin.
The CFTC also points out in its risk education materials that virtual currencies do not have legal tender status, are not endorsed by any government or central bank, and their value is entirely determined by market supply and demand, being more volatile than traditional fiat currencies; virtual currencies are often targeted by hackers and criminals, posing fraud risks. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Therefore, regulatory risk is not fictional.
It may manifest as: - Trading restrictions; - Changes in tax rules; - Increased custody requirements; - Tightened banking channels; - Rising compliance costs for exchanges; - Certain jurisdictions banning or restricting use; - Crackdowns on privacy tools; - Uncertainties in self-custody rules.
All of these could affect the holding experience of ordinary people.
Thus, it cannot be simply said that: Bitcoin is completely unafraid of regulation.
A more accurate expression is: The protocol of Bitcoin is difficult to simply shut down, but the entry points, liquidity, and compliance costs for ordinary people participating in Bitcoin will be profoundly influenced by the regulatory environment.
This is why you cannot rely solely on faith to hold.
You need to know which jurisdiction you are in. You need to understand the tax rules. You need to understand the compliance risks of platforms. You need to understand the difference between self-custody and ETFs. You need to understand the liquidity shocks that policy changes may bring.
However, regulation is not always negative; it can also bring clearer compliance entry points, custody standards, and investor protections; but for ordinary people, changes in regulation itself represent path risks.
5. The Fifth Doubt: Custody and Security Risks Are Very Real --------------------
Bitcoin has an attractive feature: You can self-custody.
But this is both an advantage and a risk.
In traditional finance, if you forget your broker password, you can recover it. If you lose your bank card, you can get a replacement. Fund accounts have registration and custody systems. Real estate has property registration. Bank deposits are insured up to a certain limit.
Self-custody of Bitcoin is different.
If you lose your mnemonic phrase, you may never recover it. If your private key is leaked, your assets may be transferred away instantly. If you sign a malicious transaction incorrectly, the loss may be irreversible. If you misuse a hardware wallet, problems may arise. If inheritance arrangements are not made, family members may never recover the assets.
The CFTC's Bitcoin Basics clearly warns that virtual currencies are often targeted by hackers and fraudsters, and if stolen, there is no guarantee of recovery; electronic wallets and storage methods also pose cybersecurity risks. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
This is crucial for ordinary people.
Many believe that the risk of Bitcoin is just price volatility.
In fact, it is more than that.
The risks of Bitcoin have at least two layers: The first layer is market risk: price fluctuations. The second layer is holding risk: whether you can truly secure your holdings.
A person may correctly judge Bitcoin but lose it due to improper custody. They may also lose Bitcoin due to trusting the wrong platform. They may lose Bitcoin due to phishing, viruses, fake wallets, fake customer service, or fake websites.
This is why the later chapters of this book must specifically discuss security systems.
Without security capabilities, the autonomy of Bitcoin is not freedom, but danger.
6. The Sixth Doubt: Crimes and Scams in the Crypto Space Will Continue to Pollute Bitcoin -----------------------------
This is also a real issue.
Bitcoin supporters often want to separate Bitcoin from crypto, but the reality ordinary people see is: Scammers also mention Bitcoin. Bitcoin appears in news about money laundering. Ransomware may also demand payment in Bitcoin or other crypto assets. Fraudulent projects may package themselves using Bitcoin's success. Exchange failures can drag down the trust of the entire market.
The SEC's 2024 statement on spot Bitcoin ETP mentions that Bitcoin is used in illegal activities such as ransomware, money laundering, sanctions evasion, and terrorist financing. (SEC)
Crimes and scams do indeed pollute ordinary people's judgment of Bitcoin. But more importantly, ordinary people need to learn to separate "tools being misused" from "tools having no legitimate value."
Cash, banking systems, and the internet have all been used for criminal purposes; what truly needs to be assessed is: Are there legitimate uses, and can risks be mitigated through regulation, education, security tools, and personal boundaries?
So, this is not a problem that can be solved with a simple "criminals also use it, so we deny it entirely." A more mature judgment is: Acknowledge the risk of crime while isolating oneself from high-risk usage methods, suspicious platforms, and opaque products.
In other words, while the absolute amount of illegal activity is significant, it does not constitute the entirety of the transaction volume on attributable chains. This indicates: Criminal use is a real issue, but it cannot simply lead to the conclusion that the entire asset only has criminal uses.
A tool being used for criminal purposes is not sufficient to prove it has no legitimate value; however, if crime, fraud, and opaque products continue to proliferate around it, it will genuinely damage public trust, the regulatory environment, and the safety of ordinary people's participation.
So the correct approach is not to deny the crime issue, but to isolate Bitcoin from high-risk platforms, altcoin projects, fake yield products, and opaque transactions.
The truly mature question is: Does Bitcoin have legitimate, proper, structural value? Can risks be mitigated through regulation, education, security tools, and behavioral boundaries? Can ordinary people stay away from high-risk crypto noise and focus solely on Bitcoin itself?
If the answer is possible, then the crime issue is a risk that must be managed, not a reason to dismiss Bitcoin with a single statement.
7. The Seventh Doubt: Bitcoin May Be Replaced by Better Technology ---------------------------
This skepticism also seems reasonable.
In the tech world, old technologies are often replaced by new ones. Search engines have replaced portals. Smartphones have replaced feature phones. Streaming has replaced DVDs. Cloud services have replaced self-built data centers. AI is changing software development and content production.
So, could Bitcoin also be replaced by more advanced digital assets?
This is certainly possible.
But Bitcoin is not an ordinary software product.
Its value comes not only from technical functionality but also from monetary network effects.
The core of monetary assets is not having the most functions, but having the strongest trust.
You can invent a faster Bitcoin. You can invent a smarter Bitcoin. You can invent a chain with more functions. You can invent a system with higher throughput, stronger scripting capabilities, and better user interfaces.
But the question is: Is the market willing to treat it as the most trusted long-term store of value?
Monetary competition is not a simple functionality contest. Gold did not become gold because it has the most industrial uses. The US dollar did not become the global reserve currency because it has the most advanced technology. US Treasury bonds did not become the global safe asset because they have the highest yields.
Their value comes from networks, trust, liquidity, history, and institutional status.
Bitcoin's moat is not about having the most functions. But rather: - The credibility of supply rules; - The historical survival of the network; - The degree of decentralization; - Global liquidity; - Security budget; - Brand recognition; - Consensus among holders; - The developer and node ecosystem; - The history of surviving repeated attacks.
This does not mean Bitcoin will not be replaced.
But it illustrates that replacing Bitcoin is not as simple as "writing faster software."
To replace Bitcoin, one must replace its monetary network. This is much more difficult than replacing an app.
This is not to say that technical performance is unimportant, but rather that in the competition of monetary assets, technical performance is just one of the conditions, not the entirety.
8. The Eighth Doubt: Quantum Computing May Threaten Bitcoin -------------------------
This is an issue that is increasingly being discussed by the public.
More precisely, the signature security of Bitcoin relies on the elliptic curve digital signature mechanism. A sufficiently powerful general-purpose quantum computer, if able to run relevant quantum algorithms, may threaten the security of private keys corresponding to exposed public keys. The highest risk is not that all addresses fail simultaneously, but that funds with already exposed public keys, long-unmigrated, or exposed during the transaction broadcast wait for confirmation.
This issue cannot be brushed off with a simple "it's too early."
It is a real long-term technical risk.
But it should not be written as if Bitcoin will be cracked tomorrow morning.
What truly needs to be discussed is: How far are quantum threats from practical application? Which addresses are at higher risk? Can the Bitcoin community upgrade to quantum-resistant signature schemes? Will governance disagreements arise during the upgrade process? How will old addresses, lost addresses, and un-migrated addresses be handled? Will the market panic and reprice before the technology matures?
These questions are all complex.

So, quantum risk means more than just technical risk for you.

It is more like a future stress test:

When a significant external threat arises, will you respond with a plan or will you trade on emotion?

If a so-called "quantum day" panic occurs in the future, Bitcoin could experience severe volatility.

Some people will panic sell.

Some will blindly buy the dip.

Some will be swayed by rumors.

Some will make mistakes due to a lack of a safe migration plan.

This is precisely the issue that the "Crisis Action Card" in the latter part of this book aims to address.

Holding Bitcoin long-term is not about closing your eyes.

It’s about having a plan.

9. The Ninth Doubt: Ordinary People Cannot Bear Such Assets

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This is the most realistic doubt.

Even if the long-term logic of Bitcoin holds, can ordinary people really hold on to it?

Fidelity clearly warns that crypto is suitable for investors with high-risk tolerance, as it may become illiquid, and investors could lose their entire investment. (Fidelity)

This statement is very important for ordinary people.

Because many only see the long-term profit curve of Bitcoin but do not realize what conditions are needed to hold this curve:

You must be able to accept significant drawdowns.

You must be able to endure years of sideways movement or bear markets.

You must be able to withstand negative media coverage.

You must be able to avoid changing cars when your friends make money faster.

You must be able to avoid leverage.

You must not use your core holdings to chase high interest.

You must be able to manage self-custody or choose reliable custody.

You must be able to avoid being forced to sell under family cash flow pressure.

This cannot be solved by simply saying "have faith."

So the skeptics say:

Ordinary people simply cannot bear Bitcoin.

This statement is true in many cases.

Without a system, it is indeed very difficult for ordinary people to bear.

This is the reason for the existence of this book.

This book does not say:

Everyone should buy Bitcoin.

What this book wants to say is:

If you believe Bitcoin is worth holding, you must first establish the conditions to hold it.

These conditions are not about education, technical background, or shouting slogans, but rather cash flow, position, safety, rules, plans, and behavioral discipline.

10. Chapter Summary: Doubt is Not the Enemy, Disdain is the Enemy

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It is not surprising that smart people doubt Bitcoin.

They doubt it has no cash flow.

They doubt its volatility is too high.

They doubt it is driven by speculative sentiment.

They doubt regulatory risks.

They doubt security and custody.

They doubt its use in crime.

They doubt technological substitution.

They doubt quantum computing.

They doubt ordinary people can bear it.

Many of these doubts are valid.

But they do not necessarily lead to the same conclusion.

They do not necessarily conclude:

Bitcoin has no value.

They should rather conclude:

Bitcoin is an asset where real opportunities and real risks coexist.

What does this mean?

It means ordinary people cannot participate blindly.

They cannot participate with leverage.

They cannot use life-saving money to participate.

They cannot participate through high-interest platforms.

They cannot confuse altcoins with Bitcoin.

They cannot ignore custody and security.

They cannot improvise in a crisis.

They cannot turn "long-term optimism" into "short-term gambling."

A truly mature Bitcoin stance does not lack doubt.

Rather, it is:

I know why it might succeed.

I also know why it might fail.

I will not pretend that risks do not exist.

I will express my judgment through rules, not through impulse to express faith.

This is the part that this book will delve into next.

We have already discussed:

Why Bitcoin cannot be easily ignored.

Why Bitcoin is not a stock, but a monetary asset.

What problems Bitcoin solves.

Where Bitcoin's opportunities come from.

Why Bitcoin's opposition cannot be avoided.

Next, we will enter the most core question of the entire book:

If Bitcoin is an opportunity, why do ordinary people still fail to achieve results?

The answer is not simply "they don’t understand."

The answer is:

Asset appreciation does not equal your personal results.

Opportunities exist, but it does not mean you can reach the finish line.

The market can recover, but you may not still be in the game.

Chapter Exercise: Write Down Your Strongest Opposition to Bitcoin

Please carefully write down the following questions.

1. What do you think is the biggest risk of Bitcoin?

---

Choose only one most important:

● No cash flow;

● Too much volatility;

● Regulatory risk;

● Custody risk;

● Used for crime;

● Technological substitution;

● Quantum computing;

● Failure to monetize;

● Ordinary people cannot hold it.

2. Is this risk enough to make you completely avoid Bitcoin?

---

If yes, please write down the reason.

If not, please write down what rules you need to participate cautiously in the presence of this risk.

3. Have you ever turned "doubt" into "disdain"?

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Doubt is serious evaluation.

Disdain is shutting the door without research.

Please answer honestly:

Did I really research and then doubt, or did I just refuse to research because I dislike the crypto space?

4. If you participate in Bitcoin, what risk do you need to guard against the most?

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Market downturn?

Leverage?

Platform?

High interest?

Self-custody?

Cash flow?

Emotional selling?

5. Can you write down a "counter-evidence condition"?

---

For example:

If Bitcoin's monetization process clearly regresses, I will reassess.

If major jurisdictions prohibit legal holding and trading for a long time, I will reassess.

If there are irreparable issues with network security, I will reassess.

If my family's cash flow no longer allows holding high-volatility assets, I will reduce my position.

Chapter References

1. European Central Bank, Bitcoin's last stand, 2022.

2. Fidelity, Crypto Funds / Crypto asset risk disclosures.

3. IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024.

4. U.S. SEC, Gary Gensler, Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products, Jan. 10, 2024.

5. U.S. CFTC, Understand the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading.

6. Chainalysis, 2025 Crypto Crime Trends.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.