Pakistan: "Agreement on Hormuz Imminent"... US and Iran Remain at Odds

[Mexico City = Shim Young-jae, Special Correspondent] Amidst the strong demands exchanged between the United States and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan has stated that both sides are nearing an agreement. Iran has maintained that it will not open the strait until its conditions, including the end of the US war and the release of frozen assets, are met, but there have been signals of progress from the mediating countries.

According to Bloomberg, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated on the 11th (local time) in Islamabad that the US and Iran are getting closer to "some form of agreement" regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue. He noted that "the situation is forming in a direction favorable to peace," but did not disclose specific breakthroughs.

Pakistan "Moving Towards Peace"... Progress in Oman Negotiations

Signals surrounding the negotiations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are mixed.

According to Bloomberg, Pakistan has been playing a mediating role between the US and Iran alongside Qatar. Asif's remarks came as both sides recently made strong demands again.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is also expected to visit Tehran soon to negotiate with the Iranian side.

Statements indicating progress in negotiations have also emerged from other channels.

According to a report by Al Jazeera cited by Bloomberg, a spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for some maritime transport have reached a significantly advanced stage.

Following Asif's remarks, international oil prices reversed earlier gains. As optimism and pessimism surrounding the Hormuz negotiations continue to fluctuate, the crude oil market is also showing significant volatility.

Trump: "Iran Must Compensate"... Tehran Also Strengthens Demands

Contrary to the optimistic assessments from the mediating countries, public statements from the US and Iran have become increasingly hardline.

US President Donald Trump stated on the 10th that Tehran must compensate for the attacks linked to Iran and for those who died during domestic protests.

According to Bloomberg, this statement came after Iran presented a series of demands to the US over the weekend. Iran is demanding compensation for US violations that occurred during the process of the temporary peace agreement agreed upon by both sides in June losing its effect.

Iran reaffirmed its stance that it will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz until its demands are accepted.

According to a report by Bloomberg citing Iran's state-run IRIB news, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated, "The US must end the war and release Iran's frozen assets, and the war must stop throughout the region, including Lebanon and Gaza."

Iran's conditions for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz include the lifting of the US maritime blockade on Iranian ports, the return of frozen assets, and compensation for war damages.

Iran has also demanded a permanent halt to attacks on armed groups it supports in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza.

In response, President Trump stated that Iran must also be held accountable for the damages caused in the conflicts in these regions.

Given the hardline positions from both sides, the immediate possibility of an agreement remains uncertain.

Ali Vaez, Deputy Program Director at the International Crisis Group, stated, "Mediators are trying to steer the situation back in the right direction, but it is not as easy as it sounds." He believes that the likelihood of Iran accepting President Trump's new demands is very low.

President Trump has indicated that he intends to firmly include his demands in all future negotiations.

Bloomberg analyzed that as these demands and rebuttals continue, the immediate possibility of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz has diminished.

The uncertainty in negotiations is shaking international oil prices.

According to Bloomberg, Brent crude was trading around $88 per barrel at 12:30 PM New York time on the 11th. It later fell to just above $87 in afternoon trading in London.

Ship Collisions Continue... Tensions Persist

Military tensions continue at sea.

According to Bloomberg, citing the Wall Street Journal, the US military fired upon a Panamanian-flagged vessel attempting to breach the US blockade on Iranian ports on the morning of the 11th.

Vanguard Tech previously reported that the container ship became incapacitated after being hit by a missile.

The British Navy also reported that an incident involving a container ship and military personnel occurred in the Gulf of Oman on the same day, although specific details were not disclosed.

Reports have also been received of a cargo ship off the coast of Yemen being hit by an unidentified projectile, resulting in casualties.

The instability of energy supply chains is not limited to Hormuz.

According to Bloomberg, oil facilities in Libya and Russia have been attacked, causing European diesel futures to surge by over 10%.

Saudi Arabia announced on the 9th that it had extinguished a fire at the Jazan oil facility. Hours later, the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have attacked the facility.

Iran's Economy Under Pressure... Inflation at 77%

President Trump indicated over the weekend that rather than launching additional military attacks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he is prepared for economic pressure on Iran to accumulate.

According to Bloomberg, much of Iran's industrial production capacity has been destroyed due to the war, and US maritime blockades have significantly restricted oil exports.

Data from Iran's central bank indicates that the inflation rate has recently reached 77% compared to the previous year.

The value of the Iranian rial has also fallen by more than 10% compared to pre-war levels.

The decline in currency value has been a contributing factor to the violent protests that spread nationwide earlier this year. Thousands are reported to have died during the authorities' crackdown. Currently, there are no signs that anti-government protests are restarting.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, stated on X (formerly Twitter), "This region cannot remain indefinitely in a state of neither war nor peace," emphasizing the need for clarity of vision and direction for regional stability and the future of the people.

Negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz are characterized by the simultaneous emergence of optimistic views from mediating countries and hardline demands from the US and Iran. While signals of progress are emerging through negotiations involving Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman, Iran maintains its conditions for reopening the strait, including the release of frozen assets, the cessation of maritime blockades, and compensation for war damages. President Trump has also added new compensation demands, indicating that there remains a significant gap to actual agreement.

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